ICBL Critique of Croatia's Article 5 Deadline Extension Request

November 2008

Summary of the Extension Request

Duration of the proposed extension: 10 years.
Reasons for the proposed extension: extent of suspect area, poor data on mine locations, difficult terrain, competing demands for resources.
Humanitarian, social, economic, and environmental implications of the extension: delays in returning internally displaced persons, lost agricultural and forestry output and income.
Other relevant information: Croatia's demining program has been mainly funded from the state budget but given the scale of the problem it had expected that it would need to apply for an extension of its Article 5 deadline.

A. Background and duration of the proposed extension

Croatia requests another 10 years to complete its Article 5 obligations starting from 1 March 2009. Its request, which was submitted on 2 June 2008, presents a comprehensive and detailed report on, and analysis of, Croatia's contamination problem and plans for dealing with it in the extension period requested.
Croatia passed its Law on Humanitarian Demining in 1996 and set up the Croatian Mine Action Centre (CROMAC) in 1998. Subsequently, funding of humanitarian demining activities increased dramatically and clearance accelerated from 14.3km2 in 1998 to 33.6km2 in 2004. It has since slowed to an average of 26.3km2 a year for the last three years, but that brought the total amount of land demined since 1998 to 226.6km2.
Croatia estimates that at the beginning of the extension period, it will have 944km2 of suspect land, which far exceeds the actual problem. Furthermore, this projection means that in 2008 it should reduce the total suspected area by 53km2,almost double the previous year's results, which it will achieve through enhanced clearance and survey alone, without any increase in demining capacity.
Furthermore, compared to the results in 2007, Croatia plans to increase productivity by 170% in 2009 by doubling the state budget contribution to demining programs and adding about 100 deminers. Croatia states that only 27 of the 59 legal entities accredited for demining are active; the remaining 32 are said to lack capacity and do not participate in public tender procedures, but Croatia plans to double its human resources by 2013.
Croatia estimates it will require €740 million (some US$1 billion) to fulfill its Article 5 obligations, 133% more than the amount spent in its first 10-year demining period. The state budget will be the main source of finance but it will also exploit other funding options including World Bank loans, loans of commercial banks, or increased allocations by public companies most affected by mines (Croatian Forests, Croatian Waters).
Croatia projects that it will release 410km2 of suspected land through clearance in the next 10 years, almost 81% more than in the past 10 years (227km2). It expects to maintain survey activity, both technical and general, at about the same level covering around 580km2. However, Croatia expects that increased technical survey between 2011 and 2014 will result in further reduction of suspected area.
Of the total 944km2 of suspected land at the beginning of 2009, it is forecast that 566km2 will be forested areas. Croatia estimates it will clear 73km2 and the rest will be released through technical survey (295km2) and general survey (198km2). Thus, Croatia estimates that more than 87% of the suspected forested area will be able to be released without clearance.

B. Reasons for the proposed extension

One of the major challenges for Croatia has been defining the extent of the suspected mined area, although it has made headway reducing this. When Croatia submitted its initial transparency report on 3 September 1999, it was able to reduce the original estimate of a total of 13,000km2 of potentially dangerous areas to a total of 5,980km2 affecting 14 of Croatia's 21 counties. By the start of 2002 it had lowered the estimate to 1,700km2. Croatia plans to further develop its survey techniques for specific types of environments, such as forested areas, to refine the estimate further.
However, combatants kept no records of minefields and Croatia cites lack of data on their location as a key factor in the need for an extension. Available records account for only about 100 of the suspected hazardous areas. Moreover, more than half (57%) of the SHAs are in forested areas and CROMAC asserts existing survey methodologies do not provide an appropriate basis for reducing these areas.
Other factors include difficult terrain (mountains, rocky land and river banks) which became lines of confrontation during the war, and dense vegetation. Moreover, unexploded ordnance forms a significant part of the overall threat and explosive ordnance disposal requires additional effort as well as financial resources (when removed from greater depths).
Croatia has prioritized the remaining mined areas according to: those which affect safety; those which pose barriers to the socio-economic development of Croatia; and those which affect the land in other ways. Croatia aims to eliminate the mine danger from areas intended for human habitation or for infrastructure by 2010 and to have released all areas intended for agriculture by 2013.

C. Humanitarian, social, economic, and environmental implications of the extension

Since the establishment of the program, Croatia has cleared 227km2 of suspected hazardous areas and released through technical and general survey more than 583km2. Mine action activities have contributed to decrease of number of mine casualties from 55 in 1999 to 8 in 2007. However, mined areas are still present in 12 counties, with 834,000 inhabitants said to be directly exposed to the mine threat (amounting to 39% of the population of affected counties and 18% of the total population).
Croatia has stated that the return of many of the remaining 22,000 refugees and internally displaced persons to their homes is obstructed by the presence of mines. The biggest impact on the economy, however, is represented in mined agricultural and forested areas, putting the focus on the losses caused to the forest companies. Tourism is also reportedly affected.
CROMAC has focused its activities on reconstruction of housing, transport infrastructure, power lines, and water supply system to facilitate the purpose of safe return of the displaced population. As a result, only 1% of the area important for return of IDPs is still suspect. In the coming years, Croatia plans to focus demining more on agricultural land; in earlier years, due to limited and insufficient funds, emphasis was put on clearing reconstruction and transport routes to support tourism.
CROMAC has marked all mined areas in Croatia with 14,521 large warning signs and numerous small supporting signs. In the requested extension period, CROMAC has pledged to maintain full marking of mined areas until they are released.

D. Other relevant information

To achieve its targets by 2019, Croatia will have to raise spending on mine action-from €57 million in 2008 to €89 million in 2013-before expenditure tails off. It plans to complete more expensive tasks, such as clearance of housing areas, before 2010, and after 2014, state organizations such as the army and state-owned demining companies will take an increasing share of the workload. Croatia's request shows that between 1988 and 2007 it funded mine action largely (56%) from the state budget, supported by corporate and private investors (19%) and World Bank loans (8%), with only 17% coming from donors. In the extension period it expects the state budget to account for two-thirds of funding and external sources to provide less than 12% of funding needs.
Croatia ranks as one of the largest landmine problems in the world. Despite significant national investment in terms not just of funding but also of developing survey and clearance techniques appropriate to local conditions it had forecast well in advance that it would require an extension to meet its Article 5 obligations.

E. Conclusions and recommendations

Croatia has presented a clear statement of the extent of its residual mine problem, although, by its own admission, its total suspected area far exceeds the actual contamination that will require clearance. Its extension request gives a detailed analysis of mine action in the past decade and a comprehensive explanation of how it proposes to use the period of the extension to fulfill its Article 5 obligations, including detailed timelines for survey and clearance, the availability of mine clearance capacity and detailed projections of funding needs and probable sources. One area requiring clarification is when the clearance of mined areas around military installations will be carried out, and by whom.
Croatia has shown a strong national commitment to solving its mine problem in the way it has set about organizing its mine action program as well as in the mainly national funding of its implementation. But although Croatia has proved to be realistic in planning mine action and has met its targets in recent years, the projection in this request that it will release 410km2 through mine clearance looks optimistic when measured against past achievements. However, taking into consideration the strong national commitment to demining as well as the likelihood that the estimate of remaining contamination will prove far smaller than the current estimate, the plan may be achieved.
Croatia should be granted an extension of 10 years.